Excel by Analyzing Blunders
May 2007
by Jeb Horton
Phil Simborg is one of our great backgammon players — and even his mistakes are fascinating.
Lets take a look at how one of his matches unfolded, analyze the error and see how you can avoid this pitfall.
In this position, Phil has rolled the 5 he was lookig for! Here is his chance to even up the race and transition forward from his holding game. The obvious play is 22/17*/15. Continuing to the 15 must be better than 22/20, since it duplicates White's threes and does not give him a good five from the bar. But is it really that obvious? Is it even right? Let's take a look at what is likely to happen next.
White Hits Back
After Phil's play, White hits with sixteen numbers. On these numbers, Black may quickly find himself in trouble. He fans 25% of the time, and in most of those scenarios, he can expect to see the cube. Unless White rolled 33, it is an easy take — but not a happy one, as over half of Black's losses will be gammons. Also, Black has several awkward entering sequences. For example, look at entering sixes after being hit in the outfield. It's true that Black could anchor (or hit) with a three, but even then he's not a huge favorite in the game. Overall, the return hits look pretty bad.
For the rest of this article please Subscribe to our Double Magazine for Everything backgammon.
